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Tracking the Asian Hornet's Spread

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This project aims to predict and visualize the spread of the Asian Hornet (Vespa velutina) across Europe using available data from GAIA and other sources.

The Asian Hornet is a rapidly expanding invasive species that poses a severe threat to bee populations across Europe. Unlike native hornets, Vespa velutina actively hunts honeybees, impacting pollination, agricultural productivity, and ecological balance.

In recent years, confirmed sightings of the hornet have increased significantly – especially in Western and Southern Europe – raising alarm among beekeepers, farmers, and ecologists. Despite monitoring efforts, many regions remain unprepared for its sudden appearance.

🧪 The main goals of this project are:

• To simulate the hornet’s potential spread until 2050 using growth models and spatial data.
• To identify and map regions at highest ecological risk.
• To explore the role of natural predators as a potential limiting factor.

This is not just a theoretical model — it’s a call to action. By combining data and prediction, we aim to offer a tool for early warning and better decision-making across sectors: agriculture, biodiversity protection, and public policy.

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What you'll find on this page:

• 🔎 Facts about the Asian Hornet and its spread
• 🌍 Migration maps and predictions
• 🐦 Natural predators
• forecast output
• 🧪 Methodology and our forecasting approach

🥀 What Disappears When Pollinators Do?

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Over 75% of the world’s leading food crops depend, at least in part, on animal pollination — including fruits, vegetables, and seeds essential to human nutrition.

The disappearance of pollinators doesn’t just affect biodiversity; it directly reduces the variety and availability of food on our plates. Strawberries, blueberries, apples, and even crops like broccoli and almonds may become scarce or more expensive in regions where pollinator populations collapse.

The Asian Hornet (Vespa velutina) is accelerating this threat. As an invasive predator of honeybees, it puts additional pressure on already declining pollinator populations across Europe.

This section illustrates a simple yet powerful message:

The decline of pollinators isn’t just an ecological issue — it’s a food security issue.

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📌 Facts

Did you know...? Here are the six key reasons the Asian Hornet poses a serious risk:

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💶 Economic Damage

€30.8M lost in France through impacts on beekeeping and pollination.

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🐝 Devastating Impact

One nest can kill up to 43,000 honeybees annually.

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📉 Colony Collapse

Portuguese beekeepers face up to 50% hive losses in affected regions.

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🍎 Food Chain Collapse Risk

More than 75% of global agricultural land ****depends on pollinators.

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🌳 Stealth Threat

Hornets nests are typically hidden high in trees or urban structures.

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🦅 Limited Control

Natural predators of hornets are scarce in European ecosystems.

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Key Insights & Highlights

📚 About Us